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Don't Blame Just China For Escalating The Arms Race In Outer Space

This article is more than 8 years old.

Sputnik I launched the space race between the United States and the U.S.S.R. But it did something else even more important. It exposed the lawlessness of outer space, where national rivalries could expand.

The United Nations has done much to reduce the state of that lawlessness since the late 1950s. But we still have ambiguities about some principles, such as “peaceful purposes” enshrined in Article IV of the Outer Space Treaty.

When paired with national rivalries, these ambiguities create uncertainty for governments about what is or is not permissible in outer space. We can see the consequences in at least one region. In Asia, military space ambitions, technological capabilities, and economic resources are coming together as never before. That triple combination makes the threat of an arms race in space terrifyingly real.

Contrary to popular perceptions, the space race is not just because of any one country in Asia. It is not just about China. It is coming about because of a fusion of national rivalries, which are now extending to outer space.

China has been singled out for its military and ASAT testing in space. One of its air force chiefs was forthright, asserting that an arms race in space is a historical inevitability. Space-based information is now considered an integral feature of war-fighting capabilities. This is one reason the Chinese dream is getting bigger in space. And in reality, the Chinese leadership has made remarkable advances in space to serve especially its national security interests. This brings the country’s feats into sharper focus, ranging from anti access/area denial (A2/AD) and counterspace capabilities to even counterspace weapons. All this is of intense concern to the U.S. military.

It all worries India, too, and explains part of the changes in India’s space policy trajectories. Not surprisingly, India has jumped on the military space bandwagon, making clear its interests in not just upgrading a range of technologies but also setting up more dedicated command structures. India is the world’s largest arms importer, with space assets comprising one component of its military modernization drive. Given the increasing demand for such assets even at an early stage, India is helping to fuel the space race.

Japan is another game-changing space power, especially under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s doctrine of proactive pacifism. The country’s military space realities and directions do not get much attention. Unlike most of the postwar period with its military taboo, however, the use of space is no longer off limits from a military standpoint. In elite political and economic circles in Japan, there is deep support for space technology to guard national security. Also unlike the past, government officials support this position openly. Corporations that used to consciously avoid any relation to defense production can now also openly go after new military business. The Abe administration has aimed to boost the value of their space-related business at home and abroad to over about $45 billion in the next decade.

Japan’s national security paradigm is reverberating in older systems like BMD, which already represent an advanced and concrete form of cooperation between American and Japanese corporations. It is also reflected in the operational possibilities of Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA). Japan is interested in making these newer systems more concrete in the context of the U.S.-Japan alliance.

From the vantage point of Asia, peaceful prospects in space are at a low point. The presence and interests of the United States deeply affect space-related outcomes. But increasingly the choices of Asian countries also matter to where the space race will go.