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Frenemies In Space; China Needs To Protect Its Assets, Too

This article is more than 8 years old.

It is common to equate Space Situational Awareness (SSA) only with U.S. national security. One reason for this is the omnipresence of the United States military, which has been central to our way of thinking about the concept in outer space security. In theory, the SSA mechanics are simple: how do you figure out where something is, where it is going, and what it might do to your stuff out there.

In practice at this stage, no one does SSA better than the U.S. military, primarily through its Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC). The U.S. military is already pretty formidable in terms of its capabilities relative to the rest of the world. Now it is also working on coalitions to make itself even more indispensable to governing SSA realities worldwide.

In 2010, the U.S. Air Force Space Command’s long-standing Schriever Wargames validated the importance of an institutional infrastructure to safeguard space capabilities. Among the organizational possibilities were a Combined Space Operations Center (CSpOC), a Combined Joint Task Force-Space (CJTF-Space), and a Space Council. Of these, the idea of CSpOC, conceived as a center to leverage allied space capabilities all the way to the operational level of war, is critical from a global and Asian perspective.

The idea of emphasizing, in other words, not just “joint” (as in the U.S. military) but “combined” (as with U.S. allies) has been around for some time. But perhaps today, there is greater appreciation of the fact that “J does not equal C,” that the U.S. has to partner with allies and other stakeholders, that it cannot fight a war alone. The theme of partnering with responsible nations, international organizations, and commercial firms around the world is evident also in the U.S. government’s 2011 National Security Space Strategy.

The theme is turning into a reality, moving at a brisk pace. Although little public information is available on the trajectories of the CSpOC itself, there is a bilateral and multilateral reality going into place that might eventually consolidate and bring it about down the line. USSTRATCOM has moved forward on this front, signing direct agreement after agreement with a band of trusted allies. As of 2015, it already has SSA agreements with eight countries, namely Canada, Germany, the U.K., France, Italy, Israel, Australia, South Korea and Japan. In addition, the U.S. has signed agreements with two international organizations, the European Space Agency and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. It has also reportedly signed agreements with 49 commercial entities in 18 countries. There is a similar movement toward multilateral arrangements, with the U.S. inking a memorandum of understanding on a Combined Space Operations Initiative (CSpO, not a center) with Australia, Canada, and the U.K in late 2014.

Given the sensitivity about national space assets and data-sharing, as well as the inequality of allied capabilities, however, it is not too difficult to see the U.S. military remaining at the heart of this spreading SSA governance for a long time to come. Even the CSpO Initiative, for example, places JSpOC at the center of a collaborative mechanism between the U.S. and its allies

But several realities should also guide U.S. efforts to shape the emerging SSA governance frameworks. The rise of a whole new generation of stakeholders in the global space game means that the centrality of the U.S. military alone is not something that can be taken for granted.

Consider the formal, non-profit Space Data Association (SDA), and especially its Space Data Center that bills itself as the first global operator-led network for providing data to improve SSA and satellite operations. Formed in 2009, its membership is open to all interested players in and out of the U.S.

Then there are the prospects of U.S. engagement with Asia, home to two of the world’s most ambitious military space powers, Japan and China.

For Japan, as a formal U.S. ally, all this resonates with its own efforts to create a new force that will participate in space surveillance. It also chimes with Japanese efforts to improve national capabilities for space surveillance not just for debris but also “suspicious satellites” that could harm the country’s assets. Japan foresees having its own radars and optical telescopes, as well as integrated dedicated systems for identifying, analyzing, and cataloguing orbits. In line with what Japan has done to date in the interest of its space security, it is difficult to imagine it will give up the opportunity to indigenize SSA capabilities.

Much of what the U.S. is doing appears to be directed at the famed China threats in outer space that we hear so much about -- the irresponsible debris-creating Chinese behavior, the increasing Chinese counterspace capabilities. There might be limits to straight-line projections. The nondiscriminatory realities of orbital debris may lead China to back away from what are effectively space suicide missions that can devastate all equally. There is also the huge technological uncertainty that comes with militarizing or weaponizing space in the face of an opposed U.S. military, and now a spreading US-centric coalition framework worldwide. Not to be forgotten is the cost of traveling down this road, problematic in light of a downturn in China’s economy and a populace that might be more difficult to placate with technology fireworks alone if negative economic conditions are prolonged.

We should remember: China’s space assets are just as important to Chinese comprehensive security in the long run as to all other ambitious space powers. China wants to protect its space assets as much as the U.S. does its own. Although other motives might be at play, this may be one reason why the Chinese military has already reached out to the U.S. military more formally and directly on SSA issues. It is an opportunity that the U.S. military can help shape in prudent and watchful ways. This would not be naïve, just responsible behavior for the U.S. too.