SpaceX plans to send two people around the Moon in late 2018 [Updated]

SpaceX announced Monday that it plans to send two private individuals around the Moon by the end of 2018. This highly ambitious flight would mark the first human return to deep space in nearly 50 years. During a teleconference with reporters, SpaceX founder Elon Musk said the two people would fly an approximately week-long mission in a “long loop” around the Moon, to about 400,000 miles from Earth, before returning home.

Musk said the company would launch its Dragon 2 spacecraft on top of a Falcon Heavy rocket and that the two passengers would be flying solo, without the assistance of professional astronauts. Dragon 2, he said, is designed as an autonomous vehicle. The paying customers would not be blind to the risks, he added. "I think they are entering this with their eyes open, knowing there is some risk here," Musk said. "They’re not naive. We’re going to do everything we can do to minimize our risk, but the risk is not zero."

Is this realistic?

SpaceX has a history of making grand pronouncements without always following through on them. Just last autumn, Elon Musk was talking about the company's Mars ambitions, and now, a few months later, he's talking about the Moon? Yet there seems to be a method to the madness, and such an audacious plan to fly two people around the Moon is theoretically feasible.

First and foremost, SpaceX is a business. To reach its ultimate aim of colonizing Mars, it must remain profitable. While Musk did not disclose the amount of the lunar flight, he said he could envision the company making one or two such flights a year and perhaps raising 10- to 12- percent of the company's revenue. (In 2016, SpaceX raised $1.8 billion in revenue from launches). As it has always done, SpaceX takes the profits it makes from spaceflights and bootstraps them into more advanced technology, with its long-term focus solely on Mars.

Lunar tourism helps SpaceX continually utilize its new vehicles, including the Falcon Heavy and Dragon 2. Already, the company's plans for a Red Dragon mission to launch on a Falcon Heavy to Mars have been delayed until 2020, so a lunar flight could fill that 2018 launch slot. This also provides another use for the Dragon 2 spacecraft, which was paid for by NASA as part of its commercial crew program to provide transportation for its astronauts to the International Space Station.

A 2018 launch is still ambitious. It requires the oft-delayed Falcon Heavy to actually fly. (The powerful rocket may finally make its maiden launch this summer). Lunar tourism also requires SpaceX to finish the Dragon 2 spacecraft, as Musk said SpaceX would definitely fulfill its NASA contract and begin flying astronauts to the station before any tourist flights around the Moon.

During the call, Musk said he still anticipates the Dragon 2 making a test flight with NASA astronauts in early 2018. He expects the Dragon 2 will begin operational missions later that year. However, as a hedge against further commercial crew delays, NASA is considering buying Russian Soyuz seats for launches in 2019. In other words, NASA isn't confident in SpaceX's timeline for commercial crew—which calls into question the readiness of Dragon 2 for lunar tourism in 2018.

Competition with NASA

SpaceX's announcement comes shortly after NASA revealed that it is considering launching a crew of two astronauts on the maiden flight of its Space Launch System rocket in 2019. This flight, Exploration Mission-1, would have a similar flight profile to SpaceX's lunar tourism. Both would send spacecraft out past the Moon in a free-return trajectory before returning to Earth after about a week. While SpaceX would use its Dragon, NASA would use its Orion.

Although SpaceX does considerable business with NASA through the agency's commercial crew and cargo vehicles, the private company and the government agency are nonetheless competing when it comes to deep space exploration. NASA has maintained that, while it has opened up low-Earth orbit to private companies, it should take the lead on the exploration of deep space. However, the private space industry has criticized the agency for spending lavishly on the development of the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft, which account for more than $3 billion annually in NASA's budget.

Additionally, some members of the Trump administration's transition team pushed for heavier commercialization of the space agency when they reviewed NASA's expenditures early this year. But so far, Congress has remained steadfast in its support of the government vehicles, the SLS rocket and Orion.

During the call with reporters, Musk sought to distance his company from any competition with NASA. "I think we're generally encouraging of anything that advances the course of space exploration," Musk said. "I think an SLS/Orion mission would be exciting as well. And I don't know what their timetable is. But I'm not sure if we will be before or after, but I don't think that’s the important thing. I think what matters is really the advancement of space exploration."

Tellingly, however, Musk left the door open for NASA to undertake the mission with the Falcon Heavy and Dragon 2 as a customer. "If NASA decides they want to do the first lunar orbit mission, obviously we would give them priority," Musk said. In other words: If NASA decides it doesn't need the SLS or Orion, we'll fly the mission for them.

NASA reaction

So how will NASA feel about this? Ars reached out to a couple veterans at the agency after Monday's announcement. Their reaction was somewhere between amusement and bemusement. These sources noted that SpaceX has had two accidents with its Falcon 9 rocket in the last two years, and the company has yet to fly the Falcon Heavy. Moreover, both SpaceX and Boeing are struggling with the technical hurdles of getting two astronauts safely to the space station, let alone flying well past the Moon. In short, expect skepticism from the space agency.

The Orion spacecraft may nonetheless be vulnerable. NASA is presently funding Orion for deep space and the SpaceX Dragon 2 and Boeing Starliner capsules for commercial crew. Does the agency need all three capsules? NASA says yes, because Orion has the special ability to fly into deep space and then come safely back to Earth under the higher velocities of lunar return.

But on Monday, Musk said Dragon 2 could come back from the Moon, too. "The heat shield is quite massively over-designed," he said. Musk also said the vehicle was sufficiently hardened against radiation to keep its crew safe beyond the Earth's protective radiation belts. Dragon 2's systems are "triple redundant," Musk added, and the only major upgrade needed would be in communications systems.

By putting forth the idea that its Dragon spacecraft could essentially fly the same mission as Orion for much, much less than the government, SpaceX is boldly telling the Trump administration that the private sector could get the job done if Orion were axed from the space agency's budget to cut costs.

A launch license?

Even though it wouldn't involve a government payload, SpaceX would still, ultimately, need the US government's permission to fly its Moon mission. The Federal Aviation Administration would have to give the company a launch license. Michael Listner, a lawyer and publisher of the space-law publication The Précis, said that will be no simple matter.

"Considering the high risk of such a venture, the FAA might deny Musk the license," Listner told Ars. "Then there are other factors to include[...] the public relations disaster if the mission resulted in fatalities. Considering the ambitious time-frame of 2018 and the fact that commercial crew has not even started yet, it is highly unlikely Musk would get the green light for 2018."