Theories abound as to why Damien Chazelle's First Man disappointed at the box office this past weekend, totaling a way-below-expectations $16.5 million and barely holding off the latest offering in the Goosebumps franchise for third place.
The film may have suffered from the backlash over the omission of the famous flag planting scene which riled politicians from Marco Rubio to President Trump. It could have been due to an advertising and publicity campaign that made the film seem rather dull and plodding. Or perhaps most Americans didn't find enough that was compelling about Neil Armstrong the person to get them to put down their Roku remotes and head to their local multiplexes.
Most industry trades and mainstream media today cushioned the blow of that disappointing opening by mentioning that films such as First Man often use their critical reviews, Oscar buzz and positive word-of-mouth to leg out lengthy theatrical runs. In 2015, for example, The Martian opened to $54 million and rode out a hefty 4 times multiplier (total theatrical gross divided by opening weekend) to end up at $228 million in North America. Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity went one better by enjoying a nearly 5 times multiplier en route to $274 million at the domestic box office.
But here's the problem for First Man. The Cinemascore for Gravity was A- and for The Martian it was a straight A. Unfortunately, First Man's Cinemascore was B+. While that might not sound that far off those two aforementioned films, if a movie is going to try to stay in theaters after a subpar opening then it has to have an A in front of it or have a Rotten Tomatoes score which is, pardon the pun, out of this world. First Man's RT grade was 88, enviable but to put that in context, it's only a few points higher than the grade for Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again.
Speaking of staying in theaters, First Man's second huge hurdle to profitability will be the release schedule logjam that the industry is facing for the next several weeks. The Ryan Gosling vehicle finished in third place at the box office this weekend but, because Universal went so wide, its per screen average was actually fourth behind Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween. A film's per screen average is far more important for its playtime than its overall gross. How it generally works with holdovers is that if, for example, an exhibitor has a 10 screen theater and has three new movies to open then the seven highest-grossing films hold over while the bottom three are final. First Man is already sitting in fourth position and will face an onslaught of 18 new wide avail films from now until Thanksgiving. And that doesn't even take into consideration multiple prints of new openings or expansion of limited films such as Can You Ever Forgive Me, Boy Erased or A Private War.
What this all means is that the ability of First Man to remain in theaters, as many have pointed out is the key to the profitability of the film, is extremely suspect. Over the coming weeks, the film will move down both the box office chart and Fandango movie listings. It will also be relegated to rapidly declining auditorium sizes within each complex. And a B+ Cinemascore and a Rotten Tomatoes grade of 88, while certainly solid, won't be enough to allow it to percolate and simmer either in movie theaters or in the minds of moviegoers. Plus, the film won't be able to hold onto its IMAX screens once November hits either and will undoubtedly lose many of its exhibitor large format screens to Jamie Lee Curtis' return to the Halloween franchise this coming Friday. Finally, the film shouldn't count on a large bump from the overseas market. The last Hollywood film that revolved around NASA, Hidden Figures, grossed only 28% of its worldwide box office take from the international market. Most films can count on 60-70% of its worldwide gross coming from overseas territories.
While all those factors will undoubtedly provide enough speed bumps on the road to ensuring First Man ends up in the black, the real problem, as mentioned above, will be the avalanche of major Hollywood titles to come between now and the end of November. This could very well lead to First Man being a distant memory in the minds of moviegoers during prime November playtime with film devotees turning their attention to films such as Halloween, Dr Seuss' The Grinch and Bohemian Rhapsody.
And who would have thought that Neil Armstrong would ever have to take a back seat to Freddie Mercury and Michael Myers?
All grosses and ratings courtesy of comScore, Box Office Mojo, Cinemascore and Rotten Tomatoes
