Branson predictions have not been helpful for spaceport

When we heard that Richard Branson was making predictions again as to when his fledgling company will be ready to blast into space, it brought back bad memories.

In the past, Branson’s predictions have proven to be less reliable than a ’69 Chevy with sand in the gas tank.

“Within five years, Virgin Galactic will have created over 3,000 new astronauts from many countries,” Branson said in 2004.

That was just one of many such projections to wildly miss the mark.

We appreciate Branson’s positive outlook. But his overly optimistic predictions created heightened expectations that inevitably dissolved into disappointment and distrust when the predicted date would pass without the promised launches, and the economic development opportunities they were expected to bring to southern New Mexico.

Then, a fatal crash in October, 2014 put an end to Branson’s rosy predictions as the company went back to the drawing board.

Now, he’s at it again. Branson told CNN last week that he is “pretty confident that before Christmas, Virgin Galactic will be the first to have people, in the form of astronauts, in space.”

By “first,” he is apparently referring to efforts by SpaceX and Blue Origin, who are also preparing commercial space ventures. Frankly, we don’t care which billionaire launches first. And, we greet this Branson prediction as we have so many others, with a healthy dose of skepticism.

The launch, whenever it does happen, will be in Mohave, California. They won’t move operations to Spaceport America until testing is completed. We wish that Branson had the self-discipline to allow the process to move ahead without promising what he may not be able to deliver. We have no doubt that all of the false promises over the years have soured local residents on not just Virgin Galactic, but the spaceport as well.

Still, the progress of Virgin Galactic is encouraging. The company has completed three powered test flights this year, said spokeswoman Aleanna Crane. The next phase will be to burn the rocket for a longer duration, resulting in faster and higher flights, she said.

Once commercial launches begin, activity at Spaceport America will pick up dramatically. Several hundred space tourists have already signed up for the chance to blast into sub-orbital space.

Not only will that benefit the spaceport, it will also produce economic development opportunities for Las Cruces, with well-heeled travelers from around the world coming to southern New Mexico with vacation money to spend.

We have been looking forward to that day for quite some time. At the same time, we no longer see Spaceport America as being solely devoted to Virgin Galactic.

In the years since the tragic test flight crash, Spaceport America CEO Dan Hicks and his staff have worked to bring new clients to the spaceport and diversify its operations. Virgin Galactic is still the primary tenant. But the spaceport’s success is no longer tied entirely to that one company.

We’ve learned not to hold our breath waiting for Branson’s predictions to come true. We now fully appreciate that safety must come before speed. We do look forward to Virgin Galactic coming … but not until they’re ready.