CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA - MAY 30: In this SpaceX handout image, a Falcon 9 rocket carrying the ... [+]
This current Covid-19 pandemic could thwart near-term plans for space tourism. When the Spanish flu pandemic ravaged the globe at the turn of the last century, only a few theoretical physicists even pondered what interplanetary space might look like; much less worried about how we might one day live there. But if this current Covid pandemic ends up rivaling the one a century ago, commercial space visionaries might have a rude awakening.
Why, you wonder? Because as weeks have turned into months of wariness about contact with Covid carriers; our physical avoidance of others has become somewhat innate. It’s now second nature to turn one’s head or move to the other side of the sidewalk, with or without mask in place, when passing another human.
Like infected rats, we are instinctively learning that togetherness isn’t always healthy. Thus, almost every major city in the U.S. is experiencing temporary and sometimes a permanent exodus. More and more Americans are moving to small towns and/or what’s left of this continent’s countryside.
Thus, this dreadful year’s brush with the Covid-19 virus may give pause to a whole generation of future space settlers who up until recently might have been gung-ho about setting up camp in low-Earth orbit. No one knows how this thing will ultimately shake out; we may eventually have a vaccine (or vaccines) that can ward off this virus effectively enough that the world can get back to business as usual. But what we really need is an effective means of treatment.
The human immune system is remarkable in fighting off pathogens once they enter the body. But what isn’t appreciated is that evolutionary biology also provided us with an ingrained behavioral immune system. A 2010 paper published in the journal Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews noted that the evolution of such a system —- designed not only to fight pathogens post-infection, but rather to avoid infection in the first place —- may be commonplace in nature.
modern city skyline and futuristic elevator. space elevator concept.
The authors write that when animals exhibit even subtle symptoms of disease, they tend to be avoided and rejected by other individuals of their same species. “…to name a few—spiny lobsters, chimpanzees, mice, and bullfrog tadpoles; this is the case for humans as well,” note the authors. The paper also tellingly points out that “within ecologies characterized by high pathogen prevalence, people report lower levels of extraversion and openness.”
This is a trend we’re all already experiencing whether consciously or not. Instinctively, even in outdoor shopping malls and certainly within grocery stores and big box stores, most patrons now begin instinctively moving out of the way of anyone heading their way. For most, such forays into the crowded public are brief and relatively controlled. If anyone feels too vulnerable, they can simply hustle out the nearest exit and find a quiet spot to bring out the hand sanitizer before heading home.
But the psychological effects of having to spend the last six months in a veritable lockdown doesn’t exactly make one want to fly in an aluminum tube surrounded by people who might be carriers, either. That may apply doubly for those thinking of beginning an arduous round of space tourism either in low-Earth orbit or even beyond. I’m sure that when serious space tourism actually begins, mitigation strategies will include at least two weeks’ mandatory quarantine.
Space tourism, computer artwork.
Even so, this pandemic might cause a blip on the projected commercial gold rush of humans eager to get a taste of the space-time environment just beyond our upper atmosphere. And in the medium to longer term, the idea of boarding elevators along filamentary structures that stretch from our planet’s surface on to level after level of condos in low-Earth orbit, might no longer be on everyone’s bucket list.
My gut sense is that this pandemic is going to reverberate in untold ways; perhaps for years to come and change not only the U.S. but most of the world. One of those changes might just be a desire to roam free and clear of anyone and everything here on terra firma. And space travel and exploration will certainly not be immune to its follow-on effects. We’ve already seen how it’s impacted ground-based astronomy and also played a role in extending the launch delay of NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope.
My best guess is that we’re only about a third of the way through this miserable epoch. Thus, how it ultimately impacts attitudes about human space tourism likely won’t be felt for another year or so.
