After leading the way in the human exploration of space for nearly 50 years, the future of U.S. manned space flight is in question. The space shuttle makes its last flight next year. After that, NASA must rely on the Russians to put astronauts in space.
Unless the country looks to the private sector.
It may have to. A preliminary report from the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee (it even has a Facebook page) says current budget restraints are jeopardizing all future manned space flights even as NASA develops the Orion crew exploration vehicle that will replace the shuttle. (Check out Wired.com's post on the committee's report on Wired Science.)
"Really, we've given the White House a dilemma," Norm Augustine, the former Lockheed Martin CEO leading the panel, told PBS last week. "The space program we have today, the human space flight program, really isn't executable with the money we have. So, either we have to do something with the current program that's not going to be very successful, I'm afraid, or spend a nontrivial sum more than that to have something that's really exciting and workable, and that's the challenge the White House is going to have, is to sort that out."
The Orion resembles the capsules of the Apollo era and would be launched atop an Ares I rocket. The program was intended to support the International Space Station and lunar missions. The Ares I and Orion won’t be ready until 2015 at the earliest, but some put the date several years beyond that.
So with manned space flight going on hiatus next year and some saying NASA needs a big infusion of cash to continue manned space flight, another option is emerging: NASA could use commercial ventures like SpaceX to deliver cargo and people to the space station.
NASA is bullish on commercial space ventures. NASA Administrator Charles Bolden and his deputy, Lori Garver, support such ventures, and the tight budget has them seeking new ways to meet the agency's goals, Jim Muncy, president of the PoliSpace consulting firm and co-founder of the Space Frontier Foundation, told Space.com in an excellent story on the issue.
But NASA contractor and aerospace giant Lockheed Martin says there's too much risk associated with commercial space flight to make that a viable alternative to a government program.
Aviation Week reports that Lockheed Martin believes the commercial space programs could cost a lot more -- in terms of time, money and safety -- than a NASA program. "We know how difficult it is to transport to the station and we don't want people to cut corners, and downstream having NASA pay the penalty of the time and cost of doing this," John Stevens, of Lockheed Martin's human spaceflight division, told Aviation Week.
That issue aside, Stevens wonders how the government is supposed to finance NASA and a contract with someone like SpaceX. "If we can't afford one program, how can we afford two?" he asks.
Stevens is obviously referring to Elon Musk and his SpaceX venture. It is one of several firms trying to develop a delivery system to send people and cargo into space. Falcon 1 (shown above), made its first successful flight 11 months ago. In December, SpaceX won a $1.6 billion Commercial Resupply Services contract to resupply the International Space Station. The company plans to demonstrate its docking capability next year. Stevens said it is important to wait and see if SpaceX can successfully deliver cargo before talking about delivering humans.
"We're concerned these entrepreneurial firms are promising too much. If you don't know what you don't know, then it's easy to say you can do this for so much," Stevens said.
Stevens raises some valid points, but he's also got a clear agenda -- SpaceX and other firms like it are competitors and ultimately could do the job faster, cheaper and better than NASA. The Orion program is unlikely to make it to the moon any time soon based on current budgets projected in the future. The review committee says the goal of getting back to the moon by 2020 is currently about $30 billion short. And unless an extra $3 billion a year is put back in to the NASA manned space budget, the International Space Station is likely to be the only destination in space for the United States for the foreseeable future.
Naturally Musk, Burt Rutan and many others think otherwise. If they can do it, why shouldn't they?
UPDATE Aug. 21: We changed the headline, since the original confused some readers.
Photo of the Falcon 1 during liftoff from Omelek Island, U.S. Army Kwajalein Atoll, in the Central Pacific* on July 14 : SpaceX
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