Will we be ready to put a human footprint on Mars in 15 years?

If you ever wanted to visit Mars, 2018 would be a really great time to go.

In July this year, the Earth and Mars will come closer than at any other point in the last 15 years. They will be in perihelic opposition, meaning Mars will reach the nearest point in its elliptical orbit while the Earth simultaneously passes directly between Mars and the sun.

Separated by 35m miles – immense by Earthly standards, modest on the scale of interplanetary travel – one could, in theory, make the one-way journey in a little over 200 days (compared to 250 days when the planets are further apart).

Unfortunately, we are not ready to send humans to Mars in 2018. Dennis Tito’s Inspiration Mars project at one time chose 2018 as the year to send a married couple on a “fly-by” around Mars, but the challenges proved too great and the mission was cancelled.

We have made tremendous strides over recent years with rovers and robots. But there is much we still need to understand about getting people to Mars safely and affordably. Yet the clock keeps ticking. In 15 years’ time, when the Earth and Mars will once again be tantalisingly close, Nasa intends to land its first manned mission on Mars. SpaceX has an even more ambitious target date of 2024.

So the question is: will we be ready?

If we are going to put a human footprint on Mars in the next 15 years, we will need to address three big challenges: rockets, restlessness and radiation. Here is a brief summary of the issues, and the plans for this year and beyond to mitigate them.

Rockets

What’s the issue? Getting humans to Mars is expensive. With current technologies, a return mission could cost anywhere between $100B-$500bn.

Is that with or without an in-flight meal? Even if you skip the peanuts, the only way to truly bring these costs down and change the economics of Mars is to build reusable rockets.

Is that possible? SpaceX’s Elon Musk believes so. They have already demonstrated the launch and landing of the Falcon 9. And this year, they are planning the first test flight of the Falcon Heavy. If successful, this will be a critical step towards demonstrating SpaceX’s ability to send spacecraft beyond Earth’s orbit.

And what comes next? SpaceX eventually plans to replace its current fleet with a single one-size-fits-all rocket, called the BFR, capable of carrying 100 people and a payload of 150,000kg.

I’m guessing B is for Big, R is for Rocket, F is for...? You figure it out. The critical thing to know is that the BFR’s parts would be mostly reusable, thus dramatically reducing costs.

Sounds great. When do we leave? Two BFR cargo missions are planned for 2022, followed by a further two cargo and two crew missions as early as 2024.

So, do you think we will we be ready in 15 years? Yes almost certainly. SpaceX’s timelines may slip. But based on Musk’s track record, things are looking good.

Restlessness

What’s the issue? The journey to Mars will be very boring.

That was never an issue on Star Trek. How come? Long periods with no stimulation, staring into the black vastness of space, can lead to depression and attention deficits.

OK but they are astronauts. They can deal with this, right? You’re right. Astronauts go through intensive psychological tests. But no mission in history has posed the boredom challenges of a Mars mission.

So what do we do about this? There’s a lot we can learn on Earth. One example is the Hi-Seas (Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation) project which has been running for the last five years. It places groups of “astronauts” for up to eight months in isolation on the side of a volcano. The goal is to mimic the conditions of life on Mars and in doing do better understand the psychological effects.

And what have we learned? One of the best ways to deal with boredom is keeping busy. During the simulations in Hawaii, the participants’ schedules were packed with work from sundown to sunrise. Later this year, another group will take part and we will learn even more.

All work and no play ... Elon Musk believes that for people to actually want to go to Mars, the journey has to be fun. That is why plans for the BFR crew compartments include zero-gravity games, movies, lecture halls, cabins, and a restaurant, Musk believes passengers “are going to have a great time!”

So, will we be ready in 15 years? There will be no way to truly know until we do it. But there are positive signs.

Radiation

What’s the issue? Dangerous cosmic and solar radiation that can cause impaired vision, dementia and cancer.

Should I pack the SPF50? Beyond the protection of the Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field, that won’t help. A one way trip to Mars would expose you to more than 15 times an annual radiation limit for a worker in a nuclear power plant.

What would it take to protect astronauts? There are options for shielding, such as a thicker hulls or water-jacketing. But these could still easily be penetrated by any high-powered rays.

And I bet shielding is not cheap. Correct. Shielding increases mass, which increases fuel consumption, which increases the cost of any mission.

So how do we deal with it? Over the next ten years the priority will be research. Data from the International Space Station, The Mars Science Laboratory and even Voyager 1 is already helping us paint a more detailed picture of ‘space weather’ which will allow better planning and timing of missions.

Is there anything happening in 2018? In May, Nasa will be launching the long-anticipated Mars InSight (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) spacecraft. Landing in late November, its primary mission will be to understand seismic activity on Mars, but the lander’s onboard
magnetometer will also examine the behaviour of radiation from the solar wind on the surface of Mars.

And what about longer term? Ultimately, the best solution may be to just get to Mars faster - and in doing so minimise exposure time - but this would mean faster rockets.

So, will we be ready in 15 years? Uncertain. Radiation arguably represents our greatest threat. Clearly, the challenges in sending humans to Mars are immense. But so too are the opportunities, and I remain optimistic that we will see a human footprint on Mars in the next 15 years. As Elon Musk once said: “I think fundamentally the future is vastly more exciting and interesting if we’re a
spacefaring civilisation and a multi-planet species than if we’re not.”

Zahaan Bharmal works for Google and is a recipient of Nasa’s Exceptional Public Achievement Medal. This article was written in a personal capacity.